A MATHEMATICIAN has come out with a mathematical model to suggest a reopening approach based on a balance of the R-naught and daily new cases per capita.
Dr David Benjamin Lim, who is a Stanford Math Ph.D. graduate, has proposed the calculation method with an objective of helping the states in the country to calculate whether their districts could move safely from one phase to another.
He said that the averages are dangerous when things are not equidistributed, and since R-naught is an average, one needs to exercise caution when using this to make decisions.
“For example, what will happen to the other districts in Penang if only that particular district is badly affected with Covid-19 cases?
“For instance, it’s unfair to implement a blanket lockdown throughout the whole state as other districts are not affected.
“That’s why, it’s important to use the calculation method of R-naught and daily new cases per capita to determine the reopening criteria.
“When we use this model to calculate, this will allow more economic sectors and social activities in certain districts to proceed.
“Hence, I hope that this approach can be considered by the authorities as I have also shared this mathematical model on my GitHub, which is an open source platform for everyone to use.
“I believe that the government’s decision must be based on data and I hope the Health Ministry, Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (Mosti) and other state governments can adopt this approach and improve it.
“This approach can help governments to have a better understanding at the district level infection and formulate proper policies to contain the infections,” Lim, who is also a Penangite, told the media during almost an hour briefing at the Bayan Baru service centre in Sungai Dua today.
During the session, Lim explained his collected data to the media.
Bayan Baru MP Sim Tze Tzin, who was present, praised Lim for coming out with such a model to facilitate the reopening criteria.
“My office is glad and honoured to be able to work with Lim and, most importantly this shows there are aplenty talented Penangites in the state.
“Sharing of data builds public trust, enables a robust external review by experts and fosters public-private partnerships. Lim is a concerned citizen, who is stepping out to help the country.
“He has suggested this reopening approach based on his collected data and I extremely pleased with his effort.
“We hope more data scientists and experts can have access to granular data in order to assist the state.
“Besides that, we will be proposing to the Chief Minister Chow Kon Yeow and other state executive council members on this proposed model. We will be also bringing up this suggestion to health authorities as well,” Sim added.
For more information, visit https://github.com/dblim/penang-covid19-r0
Story by Edmund Lee
Pix by Adleena Rahayu Ahmad Radzi